Flat Out returns in Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs

Horseracing Betting Lines

11/22/2011 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defeated Breeders' Cup Classic favorite Flat Out makes a quick turnaround for Friday's $500,000 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs. The 1 1/8-mile dirt race has attracted a solid field of 13.

Flat Out, trained by Scooter Dickey, will be ridden by Alex Solis from post six. The five-year-old is owned by Preston Stables and is the probable morning-line favorite.

Flat Out went off as the 7-2 favorite in the $5 million Classic at Churchill Downs on November 5. He broke from the inside post in the 12-horse field and raced in eighth for most of the 1 1/4-miles. Under Solis, the horse finished fifth just three-lengths behind the winner Drosselmeyer.

The five-year-old posted victories this year in the Suburban Handicap and Jockey Club Gold Cup. He was second in the Lone Star Park, Whitney and Woodward Handicaps and sixth in Churchill's Stephen Foster Handicap.

In 13 career starts, Flat Out has earned more than $1.2 million with five wins.

Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice has drawn the rail post with Garrett Gomez getting the mount again. Owned by George and Lori Hall, the three-year-old colt is coming off a third-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic as a 17-1 longshot.

"I'm very happy to report that he came out of the race in good order and he's currently in great shape," trainer Kelly Breen said. "He's eating well and training well. He's a lean, mean fighting machine.

"We're thinking that if he wins this race then he is in the running for champion three-year-old. That would give us two Grade I wins and he would be beating older horses (in the Clark)."

Since winning the Belmont in June, Ruler On Ice was third in the Haskell, fourth in the Travers and runner-up in the Pennsylvania Derby. The colt has won three times in 11 career starts for better than $1.6 million.

Another highly regarded three-year-old entered is multiple stakes winner Prayer for Relief. The colt will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano from post 12 for trainer Bob Baffert and Zayat Stables.

Since returning to the races in May, Prayer for Relief has won the Iowa, West Virginia and Super Derbies and was third in the Oklahoma Derby. This year he has earned just under $1 million in five starts.

Here is the complete field for the Clark in post position order: Ruler On Ice, Garrett Gomez; Alma d'Oro, Jesus Castanon; Demarcation, Corey Lanerie; Stately Victor, Victor Lebron; Mission Impazible, Javier Castellano; Flat Out, Alex Solis; Pleasant Prince, J A Garcia; Headache, Edgar Prado; Mister Marti Gras, Rajiv Maragh; Will's Wildcat, Calvin Borel; Wise Dan, John Velazquez; Prayer for Relief, Rafael Bejarano and General Quarters, Jon Court.

Post-time for the Clark Handicap is set for 5:45 p.m. (et).

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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